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submitted by GiuliettaShop to Popify [link] [comments]

Drone Strikes Are Escalating a Geopolitical Crisis—Which Could Help the Dollar

Investors rushing back to risk assets this month just got a reminder of the kind of simmering geopolitical threats out there. That could be good news for the dollar.
The drone strike on one of the world’s biggest oil facilities over the weekend raises the specter of escalating tensions across the Middle East — exactly the kind of scenario that typically fuels demand for assets denominated in the world’s reserve currency.
“Any retaliatory measures by Saudi Arabia would inevitably lead to an increased geopolitical risk scenario, i.e. the demand for safe-haven currencies can be expected to remain buoyant,” wrote Marc-André Fongern, strategist at MAF Global Forex. “From a fundamental perspective, there is still hardly any alternative to the dollar.”
Throw in still-festering trade tensions, record policy uncertainty, weak growth in Europe — with no fiscal stimulus in sight — and the continued outperformance of American markets, and the stage may be set for a new phase of greenback strength if the bulls have it right.
Even after a September pullback, the dollar is the best performing G-10 currency this quarter, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remains close to levels notched two years ago. The latter gained 0.3% at 10:19 a.m. in New York on Monday as the drone strike in Saudi Arabia rippled through markets.
The latest flow data underscore the kind of support the exchange rate is enjoying from global investors these days. Numbers from EPFR Global Data released last week show cash was piling into stocks amid the global bond sell-off, but beneath the surface it all headed one way: American equity funds attracted more than $17 billion in the week through Sept. 11. Shares in Europe, Japan and the emerging markets all recorded outflows.

Trade War

As the trade war drags on, haven demand for the U.S. currency is likely to continue, according to Ned Rumpeltin, the European head of G-10 currency strategy at Toronto Dominion Bank. He points out there have been several false dawns in the protectionist spat, and says it’ll be no surprise if that happens again.
“The dollar remains the best house in a very bad neighborhood,” he said. “There are few places in the G-10 where the dollar can underperform.”
Analysis from JPMorgan Chase& Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shows the dollar is getting a lift from weakness in developing nations spurred by fears of a slowdown in China.
Absent a significant pick-up in risk appetite that diminishes the dollar’s flight-to-quality credentials, even fresh U.S. monetary easing would struggle to materially undercut the currency, according to Jane Foley, Rabobank’s head of currency strategy.

Bear Hunt

There remains plenty of ammo for dollar bears. The U.S. has twin deficits and the greenback is the most expensive G-10 currency based on the Bank for International Settlement’s real effective exchange rate.
One of the biggest bulls — HSBC Holdings Plc — acknowledges risks are rising to its strong-dollar call issued in April 2018. In a recent note, it stress-tested the potential impact of three scenarios: fiscal stimulus outside America, thawing trade relations, and U.S. intervention to weaken the currency. They all pose “serious negative consequences” for the greenback, HSBC said.
But nominal rate differentials matter in a world where more than $13 trillion of bonds globally yield below zero.
Around 60 trillion yen ($560 billion) Japanese government bonds with a coupon of over 1% will mature within three years and that money is likely to be reinvested in U.S. bonds where the whole curve is still positive, said Naoya Oshikubo, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management. The company is one of the managers of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest.
“The dollar will be well supported because of these flows,” Oshikubo said.
Japanese investors bought 2.47 trillion yen of U.S. government bonds in July, the most since 2016, according to the latest data.
“The dollar is still ticking a lot of boxes for a currency to be long: high liquidity, high security, high yield. Its economic situation still better than others,” said Andreas Koenig, head of global foreign exchange at Amundi Asset Management. “It’s difficult to find attractive alternatives.”

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](https://fortune.com/2019/09/14/passive-investing-stock-market-bubble-etfs/)—Why the next recession may feel very different than 2008
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submitted by acerod1 to Business_Analyst [link] [comments]

Barclays, JP Morgan among banks facing UK class action over forex-rigging

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 61%. (I'm a bot)
LONDON - Barclays, JP Morgan, RBS, UBS and Citigroup are being sued by investors over allegations they rigged the global foreign exchange market, in a test of U.S.-style class actions in Britain.
Litigators have long hoped to replicate in Britain the success of U.S. class action claims against banks, including Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Barclays, that have resulted $2.3 billion in settlements for big investors.
In May the European Union fined five banks a combined 1.07 billion euros for forex rigging through cartels of traders known as "Essex Express" and "Three Way Banana Split".
O'Higgins told Reuters the total value of the claim would depend on the number of forex trades executed in London for UK-domiciled units - which will be automatically included in the action - and the proportional impact of rate rigging on these.
CLASS ACTION TEST. The "Massive" action is a "Perfect" case to be brought as a so-called opt-out collective class action for breaches of UK or European Union competition law, David Scott told Reuters.
This wrangling has already delayed other class actions and some law firms have chosen a different legal route for offering pension funds, asset managers and other institutional investors the chance to hold banks to account.
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Big investors sue 16 banks in U.S. over currency market rigging

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 42%. (I'm a bot)
NEW YORK - A group of large institutional investors including BlackRock Inc and Allianz SE's Pacific Investment Management Co has sued 16 major banks, accusing them of rigging prices in the roughly $5.1 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market.
The lawsuit was filed on Wednesday in the U.S. District Court in Manhattan by plaintiffs that decided to "Opt out" of similar nationwide litigation that has resulted in $2.31 billion of settlements with 15 of the banks.
The banks being sued are: Bank of America, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Japan's MUFG Bank, Royal Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Scotland, Societe Generale, Standard Chartered and UBS. Investors typically opt out of litigation when they hope to recover more by suing on their own.
The plaintiffs in Wednesday's lawsuit accused the banks of violating U.S. antitrust law by conspiring from 2003 to 2013 to rig currency benchmarks including the WM/Reuters Closing Rates for their own benefit by sharing confidential orders and trading positions.
Norway's central bank Norges Bank and the big public pension fund California State Teachers' Retirement System are among the several other named plaintiffs.
Many of the plaintiffs plan to pursue similar litigation in London against many of the bank defendants with respect to trades in Europe, a footnote in the complaint said.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: Bank#1 plaintiffs#2 litigation#3 trade#4 settlement#5
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What is a Financial Market?

Many people do not realise how important a financial market is. A financial market can be defined as any marketplace where people trade assets such as currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds. A financial market can be domestic or international.
The diagram below depicts the simplified function of a financial market. Building societies or banks such as NYSE, Commonwealth Bank, HSBC, ANZ and IMB bring two parties of people together. On the left, we have investors or lenders. These are the people who are willing to lend their money for a promised rate of return. On the other side, there are the borrowers. These are companies and government bodies who are looking for money to fund their projects to operate and grow. A financial market enables the flow of funds between the borrowers and lenders to the buyers and sellers.
https://stewardshipfinanceacademy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/financial-market-1.jpg
There are always costs for borrowers such as dividends or interest which are given to the lenders. As for the bank or building society, they will simply make profit from the transaction fees. Some of the banks charge commissions from both parties. A financial market facilitates the trading of different securities. Some of the common financial markets are the money market, capital market, foreign exchange market (Forex market) and commodities market.
https://stewardshipfinanceacademy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/financial-market-2.png
Money Market The money markets are where the short-term, high-quality debt securities less than a year old maturity are traded. We can see this as low the risk investment but the return is low at the same time. Examples of money markets are treasury bills, commercial paper and certificates of deposit.
Capital Market Capital markets are where the long term securities are traded. We can find stocks and long-term debt securities such as bonds in capital markets. Equity markets are where companies sell their shares to raise funds. Companies can also choose to raise debts in the form of bonds. Unlike the money market, capital markets have a higher return, but also have a higher risk.
Foreign Exchange Market (Forex Market) Forex is an international market where currencies are traded. The market opens 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. It is the largest market in the world with more than $1.9 trillion worth of trading transactions each day. The dynamic and high liquidity nature of Forex attracts many traders from around the world. Forex trading involves buying one currency while selling another to make a profit. The transactions are speculative where there are no real money notes involved.
Commodity Market One of the popular ways to invest in the commodities market is through futures contracts. Each commodity is bought and sold in particular unit size. There are two types of commodities - hard and soft. Examples of hard commodities are metals, oils, natural gasoline, gold and silver. Examples of soft commodities are livestock or agriculture, including beef, pork, coffee and wheat.
In conclusion, a financial market is a structure which enables the flow of funds. Financial markets play an important role in facilitating the raising of capital, connecting businesses and the investors who hold the funds.
Financial markets also provide the service for risk transferring in derivative markets. Financial markets are where the investors liquidate their investments and turn their equities into cash. Forex markets make trading among different nations possible.
The health of an economy can be affected by the financial market as there is a strong connection between the financial market development and economic growth. Without a well-developed financial market, it may cost more to raise capital and lower the return of saving. credit:stewardshipfinanceacademy.com.au
submitted by StewardFinance to investing_discussion [link] [comments]

Best exchange rate for small foreign currency purchases?

With the gradual decline of the AUD to around parity with the USD, and predictions of worse to come, I've been thinking it'd probably be a good move to convert some of my for-travel savings intended to use over the next few years. Probably be looking at moving $7-8000 into a mix of USD/GBP/Euros
I've got a Commbank Travel Money card, which I've used when travelling in the past, but the rates aren't fantastic (about 4 cents below the market rate). Are there any realistic alternatives that offer better rates?
I've seen that HSBC offer foreign currency accounts for relatively low minimum deposit amounts, which I understand would let me take advantage of the more favourable exchange rates offered by OzForex/XE/etc, but I'm wondering if that sort of thing would be really worth it, since I'd only be saving a a few hundred bucks all up, and it doesn't look like it can be used as a transaction account when travelling (no ATM/EFTPOS/BPay facilities), meaning I'd presumably have to withdraw cash and cart that around when it actually came time to travel?
Does anyone have any favourite methods for this sort of thing?
submitted by David_McGahan to AusFinance [link] [comments]

Financial Times: Trader transcripts: 'If you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying' -

Financial Times: Trader transcripts: 'If you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying'
May 20, 2015
They were known as the “Cartel” or the “Mafia” among their peers. The unsubtle nicknames were given to a group of traders who at one time worked for five of the six banks that reached settlements on Wednesday with regulators over allegations they rigged the foreign exchange markets.
Transcripts from chatrooms used by those traders and others as they attempted to manipulate forex benchmarks and engaged in misleading sales practices towards their clients were published as part of the settlements.
Below is a selection of the exchanges (including original punctuation) from the settlements between Barclays and the New York State Department of Financial Services and the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority:
● Membership of the chatroom used by the “Cartel” was by invitation only. The FT has previously named the members of the “Cartel” as Rohan Ramchandani, Citi’s European head of spot trading, and Richard Usher, who moved from RBS to become JPMorgan’s chief currency dealer in London, and Matt Gardiner, who was at Barclays before joining UBS.
One Barclays trader, Chris Ashton, was desperate to join the chatroom when he became the bank’s main euro trader in 2011. After discussions as to whether the trader “would add value”, he was invited to join for a one-month “trial” but was warned by Mr Ramchandani: “Mess this up and sleep with one eye open at night.” Mr Ashton passed his “trial” and remained in the chatroom until it was shut down at some point in 2012.
● Traders used various strategies to try to manipulate fix rates, according to the NYDFS.
One method, known as “building ammo”, involved one trader building a large position in a currency and then unloading it just before or during the “fixing period” — a short period of time during which an average price is produced, at which large client transactions are executed — in an attempt to move the price favourably.
On January 6 2012, the head of Barclays’ FX spot desk in London attempted to manipulate the reference rate set by the European Central Bank by unloading €500m at the time of the fix. He wrote in the Cartel chatroom “I saved 500 for last second” and in another, “i had 500 to jam it.”
Another method was for traders at rival banks to agree to stay out of each other’s way at the time of the fix.
In one example, from June 2011, a Barclays trader told a counterpart at HSBC that another trader was building orders to execute at the fix contrary to HSBC’s orders. But the Barclays trader assisted HSBC by executing trades ahead of the fix to decrease the other trader’s orders. He wrote: “He paid me for 186 . . . so shioud have giot rid of main buyer for u.”
In another chat in December 2011, a Barclays trader told another at Citigroup: “If u bigger. He will step out of the way . . . We gonna help u.”
In the another example, traders in the US dollar-Brazilian real market colluded to manipulate it by agreeing to boycott local brokers to drive down competition. In October 2009, a trader at Royal Bank of Canada wrote: “everybody is in agreement in not accepting a local player as a broker?” A Barclays forex trader replied: “yes, the less competition the better.”
● Then there were numerous occasions, according to the NYDFS, from at least 2008 to 2014 when Barclays employees on the forex sales team engaged in misleading sales practices with clients by applying “hard mark-ups” to the prices that traders gave the sales team.
The level of mark-up was determined by calculating the best rate for Barclays that would not lead the client to question whether executing the transaction with the bank was a good idea.
One Barclays forex salesperson wrote in a chat to an employee at another bank in December 2009: “hard mark up is key . . . but i was taught early . . . u dont have clients . . . u dont make money . . . so dont be stupid.”
These mark-ups were a key source of revenue to Barclays, and generating them was made a high priority for sales managers. As a Barclays’ vice-president in New York (who later became co-head of UK FX hedge fund sales) wrote in a November 2010 chat: “markup is making sure you make the right decision on price . . . which is whats the worst price i can put on this where the customers decision to trade with me or give me future business doesn’t change . . . if you aint cheating, you aint trying.”
● In the FCA settlement, the regulator details an exchange between traders at Barclays and three other firms, refered to as X, Y and Z. Barclays was trying to trigger a client stop-loss order to buy £77m at a rate of 95 against another currency. If it could trigger the order, it would result in Barclays selling £77m to its client and the bank would profit it the average rate at which the bank had bought sterling in the market was below the rate at which the client had agreed to buy it.
In one exchange, firm X asked Barclays and firms Y and Z if they had any stop-loss orders — “u got...stops?” Barclays replied to say it had one for “80 quid” at a level of 95 and noted it was “primed like a coiled cobra...concentrating so hard...[as if] made of wax...[haven’t] even blinked”.
● While most of the settlements concerned manipulation of foreign exchange benchmarks, UBS inked a deal with the US Department of Justice in which it agreed to plead guilty to rigging Libor.
In once example, a broker commented to a UBS trader after a Yen Libor fix on June 10 2009: “mate yur getting bloody good at this libor game . . . think of me when yur on yur yacht in monaco wont yu”
In another conversation with a UBS trader after a Libor Yen fix on August 22 2008, a broker, identified as A1, commented about another broker, A2: “think [broker-A2] is your best broker in terms of value added :-)”.
The trader replied: “yeah . . . i reckon i owe him a lot more”, to which broker-A1 responded: “he’s ok with an annual champagne shipment, a few [drinking sessions] with [his supervisor] and a small bonus every now and then.”
submitted by wazzzzah to inthenews [link] [comments]

"A Bit of Euro Q.E. Cometh..." http://bit.ly/1z4vcBQ

What’s the longest-held excuse for paying ludicrously high bonuses to select bankers? To “attract and keep talent”?
Hmmm…Libor-fixing, swap-mis-selling, Forex-rigging and paying agencies like Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s “cash-for-ratings” behaviour (from several now publicly owned banks) all sat atop a collective record $4.3 billion in fines for foreign exchange manipulation (read: HSBC, RBS, UBS, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citi) paid to Regulators In November 2014 alone?
You’ll pardon my momentary elation upon hearing bonus pools may now be limited such that the “talent reward” can be no more than twice a banker’s fixed pay.
submitted by HNWMagazine to economy [link] [comments]

Financial Times: Trader transcripts: 'If you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying' -

Financial Times: Trader transcripts: 'If you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying'
May 20, 2015
They were known as the “Cartel” or the “Mafia” among their peers. The unsubtle nicknames were given to a group of traders who at one time worked for five of the six banks that reached settlements on Wednesday with regulators over allegations they rigged the foreign exchange markets.
Transcripts from chatrooms used by those traders and others as they attempted to manipulate forex benchmarks and engaged in misleading sales practices towards their clients were published as part of the settlements.
Below is a selection of the exchanges (including original punctuation) from the settlements between Barclays and the New York State Department of Financial Services and the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority:
● Membership of the chatroom used by the “Cartel” was by invitation only. The FT has previously named the members of the “Cartel” as Rohan Ramchandani, Citi’s European head of spot trading, and Richard Usher, who moved from RBS to become JPMorgan’s chief currency dealer in London, and Matt Gardiner, who was at Barclays before joining UBS.
One Barclays trader, Chris Ashton, was desperate to join the chatroom when he became the bank’s main euro trader in 2011. After discussions as to whether the trader “would add value”, he was invited to join for a one-month “trial” but was warned by Mr Ramchandani: “Mess this up and sleep with one eye open at night.” Mr Ashton passed his “trial” and remained in the chatroom until it was shut down at some point in 2012.
● Traders used various strategies to try to manipulate fix rates, according to the NYDFS.
One method, known as “building ammo”, involved one trader building a large position in a currency and then unloading it just before or during the “fixing period” — a short period of time during which an average price is produced, at which large client transactions are executed — in an attempt to move the price favourably.
On January 6 2012, the head of Barclays’ FX spot desk in London attempted to manipulate the reference rate set by the European Central Bank by unloading €500m at the time of the fix. He wrote in the Cartel chatroom “I saved 500 for last second” and in another, “i had 500 to jam it.”
Another method was for traders at rival banks to agree to stay out of each other’s way at the time of the fix.
In one example, from June 2011, a Barclays trader told a counterpart at HSBC that another trader was building orders to execute at the fix contrary to HSBC’s orders. But the Barclays trader assisted HSBC by executing trades ahead of the fix to decrease the other trader’s orders. He wrote: “He paid me for 186 . . . so shioud have giot rid of main buyer for u.”
In another chat in December 2011, a Barclays trader told another at Citigroup: “If u bigger. He will step out of the way . . . We gonna help u.”
In the another example, traders in the US dollar-Brazilian real market colluded to manipulate it by agreeing to boycott local brokers to drive down competition. In October 2009, a trader at Royal Bank of Canada wrote: “everybody is in agreement in not accepting a local player as a broker?” A Barclays forex trader replied: “yes, the less competition the better.”
● Then there were numerous occasions, according to the NYDFS, from at least 2008 to 2014 when Barclays employees on the forex sales team engaged in misleading sales practices with clients by applying “hard mark-ups” to the prices that traders gave the sales team.
The level of mark-up was determined by calculating the best rate for Barclays that would not lead the client to question whether executing the transaction with the bank was a good idea.
One Barclays forex salesperson wrote in a chat to an employee at another bank in December 2009: “hard mark up is key . . . but i was taught early . . . u dont have clients . . . u dont make money . . . so dont be stupid.”
These mark-ups were a key source of revenue to Barclays, and generating them was made a high priority for sales managers. As a Barclays’ vice-president in New York (who later became co-head of UK FX hedge fund sales) wrote in a November 2010 chat: “markup is making sure you make the right decision on price . . . which is whats the worst price i can put on this where the customers decision to trade with me or give me future business doesn’t change . . . if you aint cheating, you aint trying.”
● In the FCA settlement, the regulator details an exchange between traders at Barclays and three other firms, refered to as X, Y and Z. Barclays was trying to trigger a client stop-loss order to buy £77m at a rate of 95 against another currency. If it could trigger the order, it would result in Barclays selling £77m to its client and the bank would profit it the average rate at which the bank had bought sterling in the market was below the rate at which the client had agreed to buy it.
In one exchange, firm X asked Barclays and firms Y and Z if they had any stop-loss orders — “u got...stops?” Barclays replied to say it had one for “80 quid” at a level of 95 and noted it was “primed like a coiled cobra...concentrating so hard...[as if] made of wax...[haven’t] even blinked”.
● While most of the settlements concerned manipulation of foreign exchange benchmarks, UBS inked a deal with the US Department of Justice in which it agreed to plead guilty to rigging Libor.
In once example, a broker commented to a UBS trader after a Yen Libor fix on June 10 2009: “mate yur getting bloody good at this libor game . . . think of me when yur on yur yacht in monaco wont yu”
In another conversation with a UBS trader after a Libor Yen fix on August 22 2008, a broker, identified as A1, commented about another broker, A2: “think [broker-A2] is your best broker in terms of value added :-)”.
The trader replied: “yeah . . . i reckon i owe him a lot more”, to which broker-A1 responded: “he’s ok with an annual champagne shipment, a few [drinking sessions] with [his supervisor] and a small bonus every now and then.”
submitted by wazzzzah to Money [link] [comments]

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How to Know Currency Exchange Rate Online - YouTube

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