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i've made all the Forex G10 currencies Endogenous,Exogenous and Cot reports excel spreadheets using the Anton kreil's PFTM method !
Hi guys! i've made all by myself after 7 months of hard work all the G10 currencies Endos,Exos and Cot reports analysis on excel using the "Global Macro" strategy of Anton Kreil's course (PFTM) of the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM) folder link : https://drive.google.com/open?id=1l-NOBnSR6kcqOKrmySBzozN10tDb_0US
If you are able to do the analyzes and update them, contact me that we collaborate to keep them updated
if anyone knows how to make excel macros, it would be of great help to simplify the update procedure, let me know if you want to help.
Here in Europe, I've been keeping an eye on the USD--the currency that most of my money is in. The USD has been in a steady decline since the pandemic started, and more recently has lost nearly 10% of its value when compared to the Euro since May. The last time it was this low was in June of 2018. Has anyone else considered transferring all or most of their money from USD to Euro? What are the odds of a USD collapse? I'm afraid that by keeping my savings in USD that I could really be screwing myself over if it continues on this trend. We are using our savings too live on while we are in school and, if the USD tanks, we will have no way to survive here in Europe. Thoughts and advice?
Yen places its opponent in check. Analysis as of 04.11.2020
Monthly fundamental forecast for yen
While the greenback is waiting for the election's final results, trading currency cross rates may be worth considering. The US political landscape will undoubtedly affect most currencies, but the pandemic remains a weightier factor in Forex pricing in the medium and long terms. The strategies based on the divergence in epidemiological situations, economic growth, and monetary policies continue to yield profits. Another confirmation is the realization of the targets at 122.9 and 121.8 set in mid-October for shorts in the EURJPY. COVID-19 hit Japan less than the eurozone: in terms of Coronavirus cases per 100,000, Japan is one of the countries that tackle the pandemic most efficiently, along with China, Taiwan, and South Korea. The situation in Belgium, Spain, and Italy looks gloomy, on the contrary.
Recession and pandemic
Source: Financial Times. As a result, Europe is forced to introduce new restrictions, which will cut the eurozone's Q4 GDP by 2.3%, according to Financial Times. Thus, a double recession is certainly in the air. The organization of economic development and cooperation expects that the currency block's economy will reduce 7.9% in 2020, i.e., twice as much as during the previous global crisis. I dare suppose that the second wave may even downgrade those forecasts. The BoJ expects that the Japanese GDP will fall by 5.5% by the end of the 2020/2021 fiscal year in March. Japan's economic loss doesn't look as significant as the eurozone's since the efficiency of anti-pandemic measures in Asia is higher than in Europe.
Source: Financial Times. Christine Lagarde is sure the ECB will expand a monetary stimulus package in December as the coronavirus is spreading fast across Europe. Haruhiko Kuroda and his colleagues are ready to take action if necessary, but the BoJ's Head has not seen such a necessity so far. Both regulators got caught in a liquidity trap where softer monetary policies do not have any positive effect. Both agree to play currency wars, but the ECB's intentions are manifest, and the euro is therefore falling faster than other G10 currencies.
The situation may seriously change soon: vaccines' development will support the global economic recovery and international trade, which is positive news for the euro. The European countries will lift restrictions, and Christine Lagarde's hints about QE expansion will remain mere hints. According to Governor of the Austrian National Bank Robert Holzmann, there is no point in increasing buy volumes as the inflation won't speed up anyway. Instead, a change in the QE program's structure must be in focus. This scenario looks too optimistic, though. But why not hope for the best and use the EURJPY's drawdown to 120.65 for long-term buying? For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/yen-places-its-opponent-in-check-analysis-as-of-04112020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
Aussie goes against the wind. Forecast as of 05.10.2020
Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis
Hope for the best but do the rest. Although the major drivers of the AUDUSD 30% rally up from the March low have been the rapid recovery of China’s economy and the increase in the global risk appetite, the Australian dollar has domestic drivers as well. Australia efficiently manages the pandemic, and the government is willing to expand the fiscal stimulus. Australia’s Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is willing to provide money until the labor market returns to the full employment state. It is about the unemployment rate of 5%. The current unemployment rate is 6.8%, and it may grow to 8%-10%. It will hardly drop back to 5% before 2022. Investors expect the Treasury to boost the fiscal stimulus. As a result, the net debt burden will increase to AU$712 billion or to 38% of the GDP. At the same time, the national debt ceiling will be increased above AU$1.1 trillion, and the income tax hike, planned for 2022, will be delayed. In the USA, the national debt exceeds 100% of GDP, in the euro-area, it is close to 100%, the Japanese government debt is more than 200%. Canberra can afford additional stimulus. Besides, the expansion of government bonds issue will support the capital inflow in Australia and strengthen the Aussie. Australia’s government bond rates are the highest among the countries issuing the G10 currencies.
Dynamics of Australia’s net debt, % of the GDP
Source: Bloomberg Carry trades and high investment rating of Australia’s securities support and will support the AUDUSD bulls amid the high risk appetite and low volatility. That is the reason for the AUD correlation with the US stock indices. The turmoil in the S&P 500 market ahead of the US presidential election will suggest the AUDUSD consolidation.
Dynamics of AUDUSD and S&P 500
Source: Trading Economics In addition to the size of the additional fiscal stimulus, investors are focused on the RBA's willingness to expand the volume of monetary support. In September, the RBA officials discussed such measures as the interest-rate cut down to 0.1%, purchasing bonds with longer maturities than currently under QE, negative borrowing costs, and even FX interventions. The latter two options are aggressive, and the regulator will hardly resort to such measures. But it is likely to cut the interest rate by 12 basis points. The derivatives market suggests it will happen already this year.
Expectations of monetary expansion is a bearish factor for the AUD. However, I don’t think the RBA will do it in October. It is likely to leave the door open for the interest rate cut in the future and set the Aussie bulls back using verbal interventions. The RBA will hardly turn the uptrend down, so, its dovish stance will give a chance to buy the pair of the price fall. Following ht consolidation in the range of 0.695-0.735, the AUDUSD is likely to continue its rally up to 0.76 and 0.79. For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/aussie-goes-against-the-wind-forecast-as-of-05102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
Currency Futures (Canadian dollar D6) - How do I go about hedging by Exposure to USD
Hi there, My base currency is Canadian and I hold some USD exposure right now due to investments. I am new to using Interactive Brokers and futures trading. To my understanding it is possible to mantain a hedge using the cash-settled large and mini Currency Futures Contract and occasionally adjust depending on your USD exposure. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/canadian-dollar.html Per https://www.retailinvestor.org/hedge.html#risk "It is too expensive to hedge." The cost to buy a $100,000 futures contract good for a year, is about $5. Pittance. Yes you must provide collateral but that is not a cost. You will also find that buried somewhere in whatever method you chose, is a cost/benefit equal to the difference in interest rates between the countries. Since Canada and US rates are so close you can cancel out any cost by using limit orders that let normal market volatility make up the difference. The fund managers who say hedging is expensive are referring to using options. This method IS expensive. Options are a one-sided bet on the direction of FX, expiring within a specific time span. They are not hedges. The cash funding of open futures contracts come from the daily settlements. If your position gains $1,000 in value one day, there will be $1,000 put into your account. More importantly, if your position loses $1,000, it will be taken from your account. If there is not sufficient cash your broker will consider it borrowed and charge you interest. You must realize that because this is a hedge, you are not 'losing' that cash. For every dollar you might lose in the futures account, the offsetting investment in the foreign security will have gained the same amount. Agreed, you cannot liquidate that cash daily, but the value is there." 1) Anybody have any experience in this in how to consider which month of futures contract to purchase, (near month or 1 year from now if I want one year of) I believe futures contract automatically roll-forward to the next month. The Price Curve seems to curve down, and is in some sort of backwardation? So farther away in time cost more due to priced in uncertainty - and also more thinly traded? 2) Collateral is required so I assume is some sort of Margin that is required to maintain the contract, 3) What are the calculations to determine how much to hedge out. Say I have $100k USD? Is it just Looking at say $100k USD x the Future Price Rate (of CAD/USD) or the current Spot Forex Exchange Rate? I.e. $100k USD / 0.74500s (Aug '20) = $134k CAD ~ So 1 $100k CAD Contract and 3-4 $10k CAD mini contracts? 4) Any resources to learn about this? Thanks in advance
Back to the trenches I guess. Some of you might remember my last post over proffesional approaches to the markets. If not I suggest you take a look on it before reading this. https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cxymyf/a_peek_into_how_financial_institutions_play_this/ I promised to discuss some stuff about macroeconomic approaches to forex, and well, with some delay here I am. Again, here I introduce the very same disclaimer. This is a professional approach, not coming from retail. Take everything with a grain of salt, and exercise proper due diligence with your approach. Sincerely hope you get something out of this post. An inconvenient, forex truth You've been there, struggling and suffering for a while. You have experienced the pain that the markets can unleash on you. You have left positions on the red for longer than your sanity could possible hold. You have opened positions that moved to the green, but you did not take any profits and you let that position slowly die and possibly causing huge loses. Now here you are , in October 2019, possibly as a breakeven trader, still suffering and trying. You have researched hundreds of indicators, if not thousands. You thought you have all sorted out with your RSI , stochastics and TDI. Yet you have switched between strategies more than you have changed your underpants in your whole life. Spent too many hours looking at the screen, wondering what the hell you are still missing. And the incovenient truth is that you want the glitz and the glamour, and the caviar, but you are not willing to eat the shit. And this is the shit: How are you expecting to make any good money on a field where you dont know virtually anything about it. Nor the substance that you are trading, nor what moves it. How are you actually expecting to beat guys that breath and eat economics?. You know literally nothing about volatility and liquidity, about interbanking flows , about puts and calls, market microestructure and price delivery mechanisms both on OTC markets and CME , what is GDP , how is calculated and why is critical. CPI, NMI, GDP to debt ratios, UST, repo markets, shadow banking, carry diferentials, how and why commodities alter certain currencies. EM vs G10 currencies, pegged vs unpegged. Balances of Payments.... When you hear "greeks" you are thinking about the Iliad or Athens. You know nothing about business and credit cycles. Valuation anchors, return to the mean, standard deviations, fair values. I could go on and on and on. Does this make you uncomfortable?It should. You have dozens of the best students that the world can produce, coming out of the London School of Economics, or from IT degrees in Harvard and MIT, all moving into freaking huge financial institutions, building complex system, doing incredible research . Funded to an extreme you can not imagine. Working in partnership with the IMF and Central Banks all aroundthe world. PhD's dedicating their lifes to such complex systems and situations....... and yet here you are, insolent and ignorant piece of s***, you that have been trying to make your "RSI" or "stochastic" work for 2 months, trying to beat this multi billion-trillionaire infrastrucure. Do you start to realize where the f*** do you stand? Do you really believe even for a freaking second that you can beat them on their game? Using RSI or Ichimoku? EAT.THIS.SHIT. And its not that technicals are not necesary. They are. But believe me, I (and most pro's that I've ever engaged with) spent less than 1/5 of the time actually managing trades and looking at price charts. If I'm not scalping , my day starts with me reading around 12 to 15 research papers coming from the main financial institutions, glued to my Reuters terminal reading more reports, looking at polls, updating my macroeconomic models with the latest data, performing calculations related to options...... only then, with a fundamental trading idea, I will move to evaluate technicals to see if the timing is good. I want to learn, how shall I procede? You want to build a lasting and enjoyable relationship with the market? EAT THE SHIT, and do all that is under your control to actually be able to open The Financial Times and understand what they are talking about. It will take you years, and for the education, hundreds of dollars. But this is how it goes if you want to get real. This is career, not a hobby. This is simply the way to be consistent. EAT THE SHIT. I compiled some resources to get you started: ACATIS Konferenz 2016, Mr. Koo, Surviving in the Intellectually Bankrupt Monetary Policy Environment - A great video coming from Nomura, to understand the actual shitty situation in the Eurozone. Online Courses - Look for IMF on EDX. Also, a fenomenal course on Banking and Money in Coursera. Books - Macroeconomics, Gregory Mankiw - Start here to graps the basic concepts Financial Times Guide to the Financial Markets Financial Times Guide to Banking Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy: A Practitioner’s Guide to Tactical Asset Allocation The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap: A Hazardous Road for the World Economy The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization (English Edition) The new lombard street - how the fed became the dealer of last resort Foreign Exchange , Amy Middleton The Role of Currency in Institutional Portfolios, Momtchil Pojarliev and Richard M. Levich Currency Overlay: A Practical Guide, Second Edition, Hai Xin The Handbook of Corporate Financial Risk (2nd edition) Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report (Wiley Trading) How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities Market Liquidity: Theory, Evidence, and Policy (English Edition) Trading And Exchanges: Market Microstructure For Practitioners The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve Big Debt Crises Payments Systems in the U.S. - Third Edition: A Guide for the Payments Professional The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economics and the Threat of Financial Collapse (English Edition) Stabilizing an Unstable Economy
Dollar surrenders to euro and yen as rate supremacy evaporates
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 64%. (I'm a bot)
SYDNEY/TOKYO - The dollar nursed savage losses against the yen and euro on Friday as a plunge in U.S. yields to record lows wiped out the currency's single greatest attraction for investors - higher interest rates. The resulting collapse in Treasury yields - which fell another 10 basis points in Asia - has been the death of one of the most popular carry trades globally - borrowing at negative rates in the euro and yen to buy U.S. assets. "Select USD pairs like EUUSD are turning because of a dramatic and decisive shift in U.S. rate expectations and related spreads," said Alan Ruskin, global head of G10 FX strategy at Deutsche Bank. There were lots of other miserable milestones, with the dollar sinking to a six-month low on the yen at 105.83, having shed 1.2% overnight. The Australian dollar lost 0.3% to fetch $0.6585, off this week's high of $0.6646 as its rebound from 11-year lows of $0.64345 hit a week ago lost steam. The Canadian dollar traded at C$1.3412 per U.S. dollar, near a nine-month low of C$1.3465 set last Friday.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot)
Across mainland China there were 2,015 new confirmed infections as of Tuesday, the lowest daily rise since Jan. 30. The Australian dollar, sensitive to China's fortunes because of Australia's commodity-driven export profile, firmed 0.3% to $0.6728 AUD=D3. Oil prices, a barometer of global energy demand and so of growth, remain nearly a fifth lower than they were before the outbreak. The currencies of oil exporters such as Canada and Norway have been hammered, with the krone NOK= shedding 5% this year and the loonie CAD=D3 hitting a four-month low on Monday. "The main impact of coronavirus for Europe is growth," said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered. "The euro area started the year with low growth and an ECB largely out of policy options...(a) bad scenario could see an extension of recent moves and EUUSD may head towards the $1.04/05 lows of the European debt crisis."
Ah, but maybe you want to look around a bit and see how China’s total debt is compared with other economies, like this? （你可能想看看其他经济体与中国的债务情况相比是怎么样的，如下图）
（G10债务分布图） If you put China’s data on this chart, it will be somewhere around Canada and New Zealand. Guess Which Country Has Debt Of Nearly 1000% Of GDP... Shocking, isn’t it? 如果你将中国的数据插入上图进行比较的话，中国的数据大约会在加拿大和新西兰之间。猜猜看哪个国家债务大约是自己GDP的10倍....（英国）非常震惊吧 UK has almost 1000% Debt-to-GDP ratio, compared with China’s < 300% Debt-to-GDP ratio, mostly because of that over-sized financial debt - at the end of the day, the government must stand behind it. On top of that, the UK has no resource to sell, hardly any industry left, going through a divorce with EU, and almost never ever meets her fiscal targets. And yet, UK, with its near 1000% debt-to-GDP ratio, is still viewed as the gold standard among safe havens. PRESENTING: The Rosetta Stone Of The Entire Sovereign Debt Crisis Why? Because UK issues debt in her own currency. And who prints the pound? The UK government. 英国的债务/GDP占比将近1000%而中国只是小于300%，其原因是其过于庞大的金融债务——政府最终将不得不为之站台。在此之上，英国没用可出售的资源，没有任何本国工业，正在脱离欧盟，而且英国基本上从来没有达成其财务目标。即使如此，英国仍然被某些传媒视为安全经济体的黄金标准。其原因就是英债都以英镑的方式结算。那么是谁印英镑的呢？英国政府。 Then you take a look at Japan, wow that’s 600%+ debt-to-GDP ratio! But - Japan’s debt is not only mostly internal, in Japanese Yen, but also with 0% or even negative interest. You can roll this kind of debt over practically forever. That’s why people have been yelling about Japanese debt for the last 20 years, and nothing happens. 然后你看看日本，将近600%的债务/GDP占比！但是，日本的债务几乎都是内部的，以日元的形式出售的债务，而且日本是0利率甚至是负利率。实际上这种债务你可以无限积累下去(经济常识：如果是负利率，政府只要保持债务不变，多出来的部分会自行消失)。这就是为啥人们对日债担心了20年但屁事没有发生。 Then you take a look at those economies that have blown up on debt: Argentina: Government/Sovereign debt in USD, with jurisdiction in New York!Greece: Government/Sovereign debt in Euro, with jurisdiction in Brussels!Iceland: External financial debt → nationalized into Government/Sovereign debt in USD and Euro alone was 700%+ GDP in 2008, with jurisdiction in New York and Brussels. 然后你看看那些因债务问题毁掉的经济体： 阿根廷：政府/主权债务以美元形式结算，其裁判权在纽约!希腊：政府/主权债务以欧元方式结算，其裁判权在布鲁塞尔！冰岛：外部金融债务→债务国有化后2008年政府/主权债务以美元和欧元的形式达到GDP的700%，其裁判权在纽约和布鲁塞尔 Then you look at China, with her debt almost entirely internal, in Chinese RMB to Chinese citizens, government debt at 55%, lower than the US, Japan, and EU average, in her own currency. China’s external debt is about 9% of GDP, globally ranked 184th (less than North Korea, similar to Kosovo) - anyway you look at it, it’s hardly the kind of material to make a banking crisis. China is borrowing a little bit from her own piggy bank. Argentina/Greece/Iceland were borrowing a lot from the Mafia. 然后你看看中国，中国的债务基本都是内部以人民币结算的。中国政府债务只占总债务的55%，比美国，日本和欧盟都要低，再次强调，其债务以人民币结算。中国外部债务只占GDP的9%，全球排行184位（比朝鲜低，比科索沃高）。无论怎么看，你都不会看到中国有任何银行危机的迹象。中国只是向其国内贪心的银行借钱。阿根廷/希腊/冰岛可是像美国欧盟这些黑手党借钱。 PS: The most significant increase in China’s debt is in the financial sector, driven by rising real estate price (which means higher value of housing loans). Right now, the Chinese government is basically using it as a tool to do macro-economic engineering. The goal is to cap urban growth in top tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, etc.) and push the economic growth to second- and third- tier cities (Hangzhou, the city that just hosted G20, is an example.http://www.g20.org/English/Hangzhou/About/index.html Now you can look back and see why the Chinese government decided to host G20 in a city nobody has ever heard of). This is clearly stated by the Chinese government like 100 times since last year in the official news channels. The reason? Top tier Chinese cities like Shanghai (25 million) already have more city residents than the whole nation of Australia! The metropolitan area of Shanghai (44 million) has more people than the entire population of Canada! In one city! Beijing’s population grew by 8 million within the last decade! The place is simply full.List of cities in China by population and built-up area PS: 中国最显著的债务增长是在其金融领域内不断升高的房价造成的（不断增高的房贷造成债务问题）。现在中国政府正在利用房价作为宏观经济调控的工具。其目的是限制一线城市的城市化进程和加速二三线城市的发展（刚刚举办了G20的杭州就是个例子，现在你就能知道为啥中国政府将G20放在一个没人听说过的城市举行了）。这些政策中国政府已经在官媒上宣布了无数次。原因就是一线城市，例如上海（2500万人口），其居民数量比阿根廷全国人口还要多！上海都市圈（4400万人口）的人口数量比加拿大全国还要多！北京人口数量在过去的10年内增长了800万！这些城市的人口数量已经饱和了。 In addition to real estate prices, the Chinese government is also doing stuff like restricting residents permits, disallowing second or third homes, even restricting jobs to local residents, everything to say “this place is full. We have these other nice choices, with lower housing prices. Go there.” Young people complaining about housing prices in tier-one cities? But that’s the whole point. The debt you have to take on to live in tier-one cities SHOULD SCARE YOU OFF. The Chinese government is trying to stop the influx of people pouring into tier-one cities, and get these smart and energetic youths to go build two, three, four, five. … more Shanghai’s in other parts of China. 1.4 billion people can’t all fit into tier-one cities. 除了以房地产为手段，中国政府也加强控制了居住证的发放，禁止第二/三套房买入甚至对本地居民的工作种类进行限制，这些都是为了表达一个意思：这些地方都人满为患了。二三线城市有更低的房价和更好的生活条件，快点去那里吧！年轻人都在抱怨一线城市的高房价？但这就是中国政府想要的。你在一线城市生存需要的代价会把你吓退。中国政府正在尝试控制一线城市的人口流入而让有技术和充满活力的年轻人去建设二三四五线城市——让更多的上海出现在国家的其他地方。14亿人口是没可能全部都聚集在一线城市的。 5.9k Views · View Upvotes Upvote91Downvote Comments4+ Share
There is too much debt, and a lot of it is likely to turn into bad debt, but that does not equal a banking crisis. 是因为中国贷款太多了，而这些贷款大多数会变成不良贷款，但这些都不等银行危机 Banking crisis may be a nice term to bandy around and get clicks and headlines, but does not really explain what is going on. 银行危机或许是一个十分吸引眼球的头条，但是根本就不能解释实际的情况 There was a lot of debt financing, especially after the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis in the US. In order to keep the economy on a steady keel, the Chinese government, through its banks, pumped money to Chinese state-owned enterprises, in order to keep high employment and maintain an image of “growth”. A lot of this money then found its way into the underground banking system through “wealth management products” and other means. A lot of this has turned into bad debt. 中国政府有过很多次债务融资，特别是08年美国次贷危机之后。为了稳住经济增长，中国政府通过银行将大量人民币注入到国企内以维持就业率和高增长的形象。但这些钱最终大都以理财产品和其他形式流进了地下钱庄。这些大部分都变成了不良贷款。 Another problem area, which frequently overlaps with the “wealth management products” is the local government financing vehicle used to fund local property development, which I have discussed here: Paul Denlinger's answer to Why does China have so many ghost towns? 另一个有问题的领域，和“理财产品”有莫大关联的，就是地方政府为当地基础建设所采用的金融工具（我在这个地方有详细的分析：https://www.quora.com/Why-does-China-have-so-many-ghost-towns/answePaul-Denlinger?srid=tR&share=22b99cfc） What is likely to happen in China is that growth will slow down in some areas, while there will be certain newer parts of the economy which will continue to grow. If the Chinese government is able to support the newer parts of the economy and help them to grow, while cutting back on loans to the weaker parts of the economy, it may be able to handle this transition better. 最可能发生的情况就是中国的经济增长将会放缓，但是肯定会用新的增站点。如果中国政府能支持新的增长点而且能减低夕阳工业的不良贷款率，那么或许能更好地度过过渡期。 This is exactly what the Chinese government is trying to do and you can read about it here:Here is how China is going to quietly save its economy 这些正是中国政府正在尝试去做的，你可以读读这个文章了解一下：http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2022491/china-deploys-policy-banks-stealth-mission-stimulate-growth So, if you are expecting there to be a dramatic run on the banks, and the Chinese people to take to the streets and overthrow the Chinese Communist Party, and become a full-blown democracy like Taiwan, Japan or South Korea, you are very likely to be disappointed. 所以，如果你是期待一次强烈的bank run（自行百度啥是bank run），然后中国人民上街推翻TG，中国大陆变成与台湾，日本韩国一样的政体，那么你要失望了。 4.3k Views · View Upvotes Upvote62Downvote Comments2+ Share
Is China facing a Banking crisis? 中国是在面临一个银行危机吗？ Yes. 对 Is it facing a full blown Banking crisis? 中国正在面临一个全面性的银行危机吗？ No. 错 Combined debt of China is almost 300% of its GDP. But the the categorized in 4 parts as it is shown in the image with the question too. 中国的总债务大概是GDP的300%。但是分在了如图所示的4个领域内。 The corporate debt has the lion's portion of the total debt. The household debt and non corporate debt are nothing to worry about because it is less many other developed countries and has some room to grow. 公司债务在总债务中占了大头。个人债务和非公司债务根本没啥可担心的因为这些比大多数发达国家还要低所以还有增长的空间。 Government Debt is not too big when compared to standards set by many global institutions like IMF, World Bank, etc. 政府债务以多数国际组织，例如世行和IMF，设定得标准来看其实不高。 The only major concern which is of a serious magnitude is the corporate debt. This is also reiterated by many economists. 最主要的关注点就是公司债务了。许多经济学家都重申了这点无数次了。 Now the problem with China is that data that comes out of major Chinese institutions is murky so their are many different types of estimates by many different institutions but the common theme in it is corporate debt and its size. 中国最大的问题就是中国国内组织公布的数据来源不清晰所以不同的国际组织对中国经济的实际情况估算会不一样。但所有组织最关心的都是中国的公司债务与其规模。 Corporate debt consists of debt owned by state owned corporations and private corporations. Private corporations in China are generally crowded out by the state owned corporations because of connections and political agenda. 公司债务又分成了国企和私企的债务。中国私企大多数收到国企排挤，这是有政体造成的。 Many state owned corporations have invested into unproductive projects as a result of excess boost given by government after 2008 to prop up the economy. This has resulted in a huge amount of NPAs. So, in all the major problem is state owned corporations piling up huge amount of debt. To solve this problem, the government tried to convert the debt into shares which the bank owns and can recover money through profit dividends but this was one of the causes for last year's stock market crash. 在08年过度的经济刺激政策下，很多国企在许多无效益项目上投了许多钱。这造成了大量的无效能资产。所以，最大的问题是国企堆积了大量债务。为了解决这个问题，政府正在尝试将国企的债务转化为股份，那么银行就能将债务转化为红利而最终将债务收回了。但这造成了上年的股灾..... Hence, it is a big crisis but not the one government cannot handle with so much trade surplus and forex reserves. But actions are definitely needed to stop it from growing into a bigger problem. 所以，这是一个危机但仍然是政府能控制的，毕竟中国政府有大量贸易顺差和外汇储备。但是仍然需要实际行动来防止事态的扩展。 906 Views · View Upvotes Upvote18Downvote Comments1+ Share
General info and list of exchanges for X8X Token (X8X)
Ultimate crypto safe haven! Finally, Securing Value in Crypto is simple. X8X Token holders are granted a 0% fee for issuing X8Currency, a 100% fiat & gold backed Token. Token holders are the gatekeepers! YouTube Video Preview X8X token is also trading on: Latest X-FEED ARE CRYPTOCURRENCIES LEAVING LONG-TERM BEAR TERRITORY? On 17 July Bitcoin broke past the $7000 mark. The influx of … X8 PROJECT ROADMAP UPDATE As promised we are now ready with an updated roadmap which will … FACEBOOK’S POLICY REVERSAL LEADS TO WIDESPREAD SPECULATION After an explosive year for ICOs and cryptocurrency in 2017, some regulators … STOCK AND COMMODITY MARKETS REACT PREDICTABLY TO THE LOOMING TRADE WARS – WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GOLD The G7 Summit in Canada in June was marked by uneasiness and … Media YouTube Video Preview Global Leaders Forum panel 1 YouTube Video Preview Global Leaders Forum panel 2 YouTube Video Preview Global Leaders Forum panel 3 YouTube Video Preview Dubai Blockchain Summit 2018 Upcoming Events Asean Blockchain Summit 3rd – 4th September 2018 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia More info World Blockchain Summit 2018 1st – 5th October 2018 Mumbai, India More info Salon International des Femmes Entrepreneures 13th – 15th February 2019 Paris, France More info Past Events KBS2018 in Seoul 12th – 13th July 2018 Seoul, Korea More info Bloomberg Global Leaders Forum 3rd April 2018 Dubai, UAE More info Dubai Blockchain Summit 2018 28th – 29th March 2018 Dubai, UAE More info Blockchain in Finance 14th – 15th March 2018 Rome, Italy More info Ideal for TGEs / TGE contributors Private individuals – traditional savers Crypto contributors Financial institutions Merchants Speculators & traders Subscribe to newsletter Enter your email address* What is X8X? X8X is an Ethereum pure utility Token, functioning as a Key for issuing X8Currency. To exchange X8Currency for fiat ($/€) with 0% fee you will need to hold a corresponding amount of X8X. X8X TOKEN SPECIFICATION Address: 0x910Dfc18D6EA3D6a7124A6F8B5458F281060fa4c Token Symbol: X8X Decimals: 18 YouTube Video Preview Utility Token Token is used as a key to access services of issuing or exchanging the X8Currency at the Issuer. Limited Cap There will be only 100.000.000 Tokens issued in the TGE, later mining is not supported. Opportunity X8X holders will be able to obtain their own X8Currency or distribute this right to others on Online Exchanges. Legislation compliant The X8X Token is issued by a Swiss-based company, approved by the Swiss Regulatory Authorities. X8 Project - Dual Token Model A revolutionary new store of value for the distributed and traditional economy brought to you by the ultimate currency. The X8 Project developed two Ethereum based Tokens: X8Currency that is fully backed with 8 fiat (cash) currencies + gold and X8X Utility Token that functions as a key to the issuance and exchange process of X8C with 0% fee. What is X8Currency (X8C)? X8Currency is an Ethereum Token, 100% backed in 8 fiat (Cash) Currencies & Gold. Each Token is represented with assets deposited on bank accounts. Assets are actively managed by the propriety software, Automatic Reserve Management AI. X8C can only be issued or exchanged for fiat with X8X Utility Tokens. fiat-gold X8Currency Facts: 100% backed with Cash & Gold assets are actively managed by proved and tested AI risk management platform ARM the most stable Crypto Currency 100% exchangeable for 8 fiat Currencies (Cash) at the Issuer for 0% fee with X8X Tokens PROVEN PROVEN Risk management AI developed over 10 years for traditional FinTech, $1B in transactions since 2015. SAFE SAFE Non-leveraged reserves in top 8 fiat currencies and gold provide unparalleled safety. LIQUID LIQUID Fiat currency foundation enables daily volume in billions without affecting the price. SECURE SECURE Triple-redundant Swiss architecture and gold reserves fully utilise the advantages of the Swiss financial ecosystem. verified Our business partner verifies that this chart represents the holdings of a live account where all trades were executed by ARM AI. View reference here. The ARM Portfolio risk management AI, which operates the reserves of the X8 currency, was developed over 10 years. It has been operational since 2015 and has generated a transaction volume of over $1 Billion for clients in the traditional financial industry. 8-Currencies-ARM-AI Fiat in X8 brings vast liquidity which can support speedy large transactions with little to no price impact. That means that X8 can scale globally and provide a sustainable solution as a financial system for more than 3,5bn people. Together with friendly nature of X8 market operations, all participants in the value chain benefit from this constructive system. X8 leverages the benefits of the Swiss financial ecosystem. Fiat funds deposited in the Swiss UBS AG, will be insured by SwissRE AG and audited daily by JP Fund Services. A store of gold currency in the safest certified storages outside the banking system serves as additional reserve for X8 currency. Swiss-setup Road map Team The team behind the X8 Currency blockchain product. Gregor is behind some of the main design features of ioNectar platform. Gregor combined natural investment perspective with advanced technology capabilities of today into a winning philosophy match. His accumulated experience comes from working as portfolio manager in institutional environment, advising funds, HNWIs and specialists in foreign exchange and other markets. GREGOR KOŽELJ CEO / Founder Tomaz with his long-term experience in business is responsible for executing the Sales strategy and tactics. The focus is to drive the business forward in creating stronger relationships, converting more prospects in gaining potential clients, increasing sales, creating operational efficiency, and lastly creating a fun and motivational environment. TOMAŽ LEPOŠA CSO His experience with entrepreneurship, business organization and sales management has given him a valuable insight into business processes and development. His approach to team management and integration makes business operation a smooth and exciting experience. ALY KULAUZOVIĆ Business development Rudolf Ströbl is a financial expert and program-developer with over 20 years of experience in various projects involving precious metals, options, equities and digital currencies. He has also developed models and algorithms in the Forex Markets. Currently he is the Managing Director of FX & Project Management GMBH in Switzerland. RUDOLF P. STRÖBL Infrastructure Francesca Greco has been a board member of several Private Equity Funds. Her focus are projects related to energy and telecommunications. She has been following closely the development of cutting-edge technologies of great potential. She is currently part of Green Brain Technologies team, where she is in charge of Government Relations and Regulatory Affairs. FRANCESCA GRECO Legal Lenart manages and supervises legal aspects of the company's business. With experience at law office, he finds working in the area of finance an opportunity to expand his skills and understanding of legal dimensions of finance. LENART KMETIČ Communications & Legal support Phil is an expert problem solver with a background in finance and communications. He has been a most welcome addition to the team, especially in terms of strategy and sharpening message clarity. He has more than 20 years of active experience in bringing together businesses from Western, Central and Eastern Europe by means of eliminating cultural differentiation. PHIL LAWRENCE Communications An IT expert with years of participation in the world of cryptocurrencies. His experience in computer programming and knowledge of IT is a valuable contribution to the company. The products of ioNectar gave him an opportunity to employ his skills in a new and exciting way. He is also responsible for ICO communication. ALEN OBERSTAR Communications With background in social sciences and focus on collapse of complex systems, he welcomed the opportunity to explore issues of financial stability. His passion for research led him to become one of the main contributors to the company's xfeed. He is also in charge of TGE communication. DAVID PREŽELJ Communications Urban is a long-time cryptocurrency enthusiast with a passion for ICO/TGE research. With his expertise in developing and leading teams he has developed a strategic plan to achieve the successful launch of the X8 TGE project. His strategic vision has assisted in bringing together the existing talents of the X8 team in a coherent manner. URBAN ALJANČIČ TGE / ICO project manager Simon is a seasoned computer expert with an extensive range of programing skills in different computer languages. As the CTO of ioNectar he knows the area of the platform client and manages technological releases of the product. He is creativity driven with insight in new products development and is behind different original aspects of the platform. SIMON HOHLER CTO Ervin is a specialist in IT. He brings together his broad technical proficiency from computer science and manages all main IT administration perspectives of ioNectar. Work in specialized software and electronics product solutions is his passion which he has been following. Through persistent expansion of his ability Ervin proved many times he is an IT authority. ERVIN MARGUČ CIO A computer programmer proficient in several computer languages. He is involved in developing the key components of the ioNectar technology. He is eager to use his knowledge to build bridges between blokchain technology and the world of traditional finance. ERGIM RAMADAN IT Sofia is in charge of visual presentations and design strategies at ioNectar. The dedicated and enthusiastic team around her created the right environment for her to express her artistic sensibilities and passion for aesthetics in every aspect of the company's presentations. SOFIA KULAUZOVIĆ Corporate look & design Advisory Board The team behind the X8 Currency blockchain product. Peter Kristensen is the CEO of JP Integra LLC US, an international finance service group providing administrative and management services to owners and managers of international private capital. PETER KRISTENSEN Financial specialist Olaf Chalmer is a financial advisor with decades of experience in the banking sector who, among other things, offers guidance to investors in financial sector. Currently he is the president of the Swiss Management, Ltd, a consulting company oriented towards clients from Eastern Europe. OLAF CHALMER B2B placement A progressive investment professional with more than 2 decades of experience in top level banks. Mikkel is advising globally on interest rate and FX risk and manages alpha driven G10 portfolios. He is running independent trading & advisory business, is also a specialist in market making and sits on several investment management boards. MIKKEL THORUP Foreign exchange field Marcus von Goetz is a seasoned bondspecialist and trader. During his career he held key bondstrading positions at several prominent financial institutions. He is also a financial advisor for larger market participants. Currently his expertise is available to institutional clients and venture capital entrepreneurs through VG&S Business Development. MARCUS VON GOETZ Business development With a background in finance and an enthusiasm for blockchain technology attorney Peter Merc PhD is the ideal legal consultant for TGEs. He is a member of the supervisory board of Slovenian systemic bank and cofounder of Lemur Legal, a legal company promoting digital transformation. He helps transform TGEs in legally compliant enterprises. PETER MERC, PH.D. Legal advice Simon Cocking is a seasoned business mentor to TGEs and a senior editor at Irish Tech News. He is also an experienced public speaker at events including TEDx and Web Summit. He is a crypto connoisseur and has to date successfully advised and mentored 18 TGEs. He has also founded six prosperous companies. SIMON COCKING Digital Marketing Branko Drobnak is a former investment banker with more than 25 years of experience in finance and entrepreneurship. This background combined with his enthusiasm for ICO research and investment provides valuable insights to the X8 project. BRANKO DROBNAK Strategic advice EXCHANGE LIST Binance Huobi Kucoin Bibox Qryptos Satoexchange BIGone Bitrue Bilaxy Bit-Z Linkcoin SECURE WALLET Ledgerwallet Trezor
One key philosophy that defined me as a retail trader. Always Remember: Conviction is important.
On here early this morning (light data day so we've got some downtime before our coverage) and wanted to post something I notice A LOT amongst the online comments and retail crowds. Don't be so quick to abandon ship or change the direction of where you see price action moving. By that, I don't mean this in the sense of sticking with losing trades, averaging down (losers average losers), or bad strategies. I mean this with regards to people that are far too easily convinced at the slightest dip, a full trend change has occurred. Whether its because of some indicator they look at that they want to tell the future or because a specific line was broken that they drew... Remember, market trends don't change because you think they do. Markets change when the expectations of the whole of the market participants turn. First, keep in mind that just because you have a particular trendline off two arbitrary points doesn't mean Joe Shmo at xyz capital and the 50 others in a PM position like him who's dropping $500 million USD on daily position movements is seeing the same line... or using a line at all. An example this week has been with USDJPY. I have seen plenty of comments floating around (not necessarily here) like this where a perfectly reasonable correction in a strong fundamentally backed USD bull trend leads to an "all aboard the short train". I'm not doing this to single anyone out... plenty of comments like this can be seen over at ForexLive (been friends with a couple of the contributors over the years and occasionally post comments) where purely stop driven short selling on the first retest of 100 since it gapped 60 pips across the line all of a sudden means we're going to revisit 95's and to sell everything with a pulse because "the trend has changed". Then comes the flurry of "confused" comments wondering why the USD isn't sinking. Ultimately, this comes down to basic market discipline of having objective judgement skills. Not getting swept up in the motion of the price action or more importantly... not getting swept up just because you have a position/financial stake in one answer or another (fading trends is a perfectly fine strategy so long as you don't presume each fading moment is a paradigm shift in the price's future movements). You need to be able to step back to determine without prejudice, if the trend truly is in fact broken. If you can't make a definitive conclusion on this from an objective point of view, then don't trade. Trading on guessing is flat out gambling. You're flipping a coin and hoping your guess is the same as the side of the coin. I'll tell you right now... Multi year currency trends don't change direction just because an indicator is overbought or a convergeance/divergeance of "insert random arbitrary measure here". If you mark the G10's major pair trends over the past 5 years, you can isolate the true changes in trends with shifts in the global paradigm of market flows. You can usually isolate shifts like this to policy shifts as well. This was the case in the constant up and down of the EUUSD over the course of the EU Sovereign Debt crisis. Each shift came from a change/agreement in how to further handle the crisis (ESM, etc). This is also why so many large macro funds made an ungodly amount of money during the past 6 months on the JPY. They recognized when the shift came from the large picture and chose entry points on the small picture. Yesterday proved a great example of this challenge to new traders in USD/JPY action with the ISM. It's been getting beaten on pretty badly with the large downward push in the Nikkei and had been sitting at 100.40 with buying attempts finding no ground. This indicated a good presence of market mind wanting to move downwards (with obvious stops at 100 being the obvious goal) and just waiting on a catalyst. If you stepped back for a moment though, nothing had changed. The largest QE program in history was still in full swing and USD yields were still rising (general gauge of attraction from jpy to USD can be viewed as the differential of JGB 10 years and 10 yr US Treasuries). I posted this prior to the 10am ISM report when it was still floating in the 100.40's and sure enough, we had a nice bounce when we ran into buyers and short profit takers below 99. Even for you guys that love the tech/trendline trading, this showed a bounce at the 55 day EMA and close to the daily trendline spanning from last November. This board should have been filled with comments about how great a chance this USD dip is to get a position in (or take profits if you're fading).... yet the retail comment consensus seemed to be swept up in a flurry of "yay short USD" and "sell bounces!", despite no fundamental landscape change or even technical viewpoint supporting greater breaks lower than yesterday's lows. As we sit right now, I could be completely proven wrong and this could be a trend change. Price could go back below 100 and push further lows into the mid 90's for all I know... and I will be the first to admit I am wrong when that happens. That doesn't change the point of this wall of text though. Bottom Line: Profitable traders let the price trend actually change direction before they change convictions. They do NOT change convictions and then wait for price trends to subsequently confirm.
G10 forex trading linked to recession type dealing Tuesday, January 26th, 2016. Financial researchers have indicated that trading across all G10 currencies is similar to the type of trading conducted throughout recession periods. The G10 currencies are the most widely traded globally, these are: US dollar Euro Japanese yen British pound Australian dollar Swiss franc New Zealand dollar (NZD ... Deutsche Bank G10 forex models point to the three 'cheapest': - JPY, SEK and CAD Most expensive are: - USD, CHF and NZD DB use 4 models fo By Eamonn Sheridan G10 currencies take advantage as Dollar falls - FXTM Forex Technical Analysis on Forex-Ratings.com for 28 April, 2020 G10 currencies are positioned as such because they are also among the most liquid forex pairs, meaning that traders can buy or sell them without significantly impacting their exchange rates. Due to their popularity, most major forex pairs consist of G10 currencies – examples include AUD/USD , EUR/USD, GBP/EUR , GBP/USD , USD/CAD , USD/CHF and USD/JPY . G10 currencies are among the world’s most popular and liquid currencies – although you can find most world currencies on the forex market, there are only a few that are actively traded. The list includes the currencies of some of the world’s largest economies such as the US, the EU, the UK, Japan and Australia. Learn more about what the G10 currency pairs are, and which factors can ... Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD outperforming on Tuesday among G10 currencies NEWS Nov 10, 16:52 GMT By FXStreet Team. Currency volatility cools – Cable at 45-day high. The ... Short overview of currencies G10 and best forex EA for trading them. Jim Anderson - Public Relations Apr 15, 2019. Here you can find information about G10 currencies and best Forex robots for trading them. USD – The continuation of the explosive scenario implies the weakness of the US dollar but an increase in the yield of US binds does not allow it to fall sharply. The best forex robot for ...
The dollar gives back some of its gains as we see other G10 currencies rally Morning outlook 26th
For all your market news, views and key trading set-ups, Chris Weston takes you through all the action and upcoming event risk to help you capitalise, and assess the risks to your exposures. For ... USD has appreciated since the outbreak of COVID-19, as investors have sought its safety. Nevertheless, this will be transitory. Emerging currencies remain th... As our crisis series within the Alpha Exchange continues, it was a pleasure to catch up with Steven Englander, the head of G10 FX and North America Macro Strategy for Standard Chartered. We review ... The dollar has continued to give back more of its gains as we see other G10 currencies rally. How long this will continue we will have to wait and see. Some are quite overbought this morning ... Eric Theoret, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, explores risk profiles and how it relates to a currency’s behaviour in different market environments. View Scotiabank's terms of access: https ... How we use a combination of technical indicators to determine potential price action within G10 currencies. In this video, Ron William, Market Strategist at RW Advisory, discusses the outlook for the financial markets in the week ahead. Topics covered in this edition include: 1. Top 5 charts featuring ...